Stocks: Short-Term

Explore the current portfolio performance tracker. Premium members can continue below to the dedicated Data Library layout, chart picture, and reading guide.

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Stock and gold models

These are my cycle models for the S&P 500, gold, and US Treasury yields. The working TradingView layouts and reading guides are in the Premium collection below.

S&P 500 Quarter Cent Cycles Theory: Overview

I call this the Quarter Cent Cycles Theory because of the 25 year long cycles in between pauses. I developed it by exploring S&P 500 cycles across the past 100 years.

There have been many periods called recessions, but I see the true market pauses as the Great Depression in the 1930s, the period between 1966 and 1977, and the dot com crash through the 2008 housing market crash.

In between these approximately nine year pauses are five different highs which come at certain intervals after the “dawn.” The dawn is the final and most devastating correction of the pause, which begins the next 25 year run. The highs are listed by how many years they come after the dawn:

• 6 year top: Red.

• 9 year top: Orange.

• 12 year top: Yellow.

• 15 year top: Green.

• 19 year top: Blue.

The dates for these tops are further reinforced with Fibonacci time measurements between the dawn and approximately the first top of the pause. Pause periods themselves have two major tops that come about seven years apart.

The exceptions are part of the theory. In 1951 and 1954, price continued up without a correction. The correction associated with the 1984 point came sooner, in 1983. Corresponding highs often act similarly, but they do not all produce the same result.

In my original March 18th, 2025 explanation, I identified December 2024 as the 15 year high, late 2028 as the next topping point to watch, and 2034 to 2043 as the next potential market pause. Those were the projections in that original research; the updated chart and my ongoing research show how the sequence is developing.

Read my original explanation on X

Gold 10/4 Cycles Theory: Overview

The 10/4 Cycles Theory is my cycles theory for gold. It says that gold operates around a 15 year cycle. The bull market takes 10 to 11 years, while the bear market takes four to five years.

The cycle begins with one bottom event and is followed by two top events. These are the major points, and they come inside 1.5 year windows in the peaks and troughs of the sine wave cycle.

One interesting example is the failed bull market between 1985 and 1996. The two cycle top events landed in their appropriate places, but the bull market fell flat. The timing structure was still there even though the price advance did not develop in the same way.

This theory joins my Halving Cycles Theory for Bitcoin and Quarter Cent Cycles Theory for the S&P 500. Each studies the recurring timing and structure of its own market.

When I introduced the theory on April 7th, 2026, I considered February 2026 a likely end to the bull market and the beginning of a bearish phase lasting until 2030 or 2031. I also set a clear test: for the theory to remain successful in the near term, the bull market would need to end by July 2027 at the latest, at the end of the 10 to 11 year window.

Read my original explanation on X

Explore the current model collection

Premium members can continue below to the three dedicated Data Library model layouts.

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Bitcoin has given us plenty of reasons to believe the low is already in. But if $58K were a convincing false low, wouldn’t we expect to see many of those same signals?

I’m still not sold on the idea that the cycle has finished. In this video, we’ll look at what’s missing, the short-term upside that could come first, and the retest that would help make the bullish case.

I’ll also introduce my new stock portfolio performance tracker and compare it with Bitcoin and the major indexes.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin has maintained its move over 83k and many of you are probably still wondering what to do!

In this video, I’ll go over the evidence for a higher low and cycle continuation so you can choose what works best for you.

We’ll look at short-term price action, the bottom signals already triggered, and the evidence still missing. I’ll also walk through some new research on stocks, gold, and Treasury yields, and what it means for where I’m invested.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin is holding above 83k, but there’s still a lot standing between us and new highs. I’m still watching for a higher low for those waiting on another opportunity, while the November–January window and the missing bottom data haven’t gone away.

We’ll look at both sides of the Bitcoin picture, check in on gold, and see how the stock portfolio is doing two months in.

Enjoy!

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The break above 83k was an interesting turn of events, and price is now in decision mode….

My sights are still set on November - January. Whether that is a higher low, equal lows or potentially still a lower low is yet to be determined. It will be my goal to seek this point out for those that are waiting with cash.

We’ll also talk about my approach for cycle bottoms and cycle tops, and the risk vs reward of a cycle first vs a data first framework.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin is at 86k, up 50% from the absolute low at 58k in June 2026.

I can’t stay stuck in my ways forever, and I do think reaching this price makes a significant change:

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Welcome back to another quick update.

Bitcoin is back in another range (76–81k). Just like our sideways price action never left! Except it’s 15k higher than our previous range at 64k.

In this update, we’ll look at the short term, some updates on recent charts, and the long-term picture.

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The weekly Supertrend has flipped bullish, and it’s certainly not the only reason to believe the bull market is back. Even some of my own reliable metrics are saying the bottom is already in.

But I’m still trusting the cycle!

In this video, I’ll explain why I’m looking for a later low despite all of the bullish evidence. We’ll look at the resistance that’s still in place, the bottom data that hasn’t finished, and what short-term liquidity and Global M2 may be telling us.

Enjoy!

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It’s certainly not a popular opinion to suggest the bear market isn’t over at this point, especially after Bitcoin sits at 80k, but I am staying in that camp.

This is despite every possible reason to be bullish, like cycle bottom data completion, bullish divergences, a move similar to November 2022, bull market thresholds being crossed, and a powerful move out of the lows.

In this video, we’ll look at where Bitcoin is running into resistance and areas the bear market still needs “improvement” in.

Enjoy!

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It’s been a while since our last Friday Video Update, but I thought it’d be a good time to share my thoughts as Bitcoin blasts past 80k, which has everyone setting their sights on a new bull market.

But not fuddy duddy CryptoCon… he’s still stuck on that cycle stuff!

Ok, you got me. Despite the bullish price action, I am continuing to bet with the cycle, and in this video I’ll be sharing my thoughts on how the bear market could still play out.

Enjoy!

Summary (AI-Generated)

Bear Market Range Breakout

• Bitcoin spent roughly 72 days moving sideways around the $64K area before finally breaking upward with a major increase in volatility.

• The two previous bear-market ranges lasted approximately 68 days each, making the timing of a volatility expansion unsurprising.

• What was more surprising was the strength of the breakout, including three large bullish candles, significant volume, and a major wave of short liquidations.

• The move resembles bullish price action seen during the previous bull market, making the current situation increasingly difficult to dismiss as simply bearish.

Evidence Supporting a Cycle Bottom

• Several Bitcoin indicators have already reached traditional cycle-bottom territory.

• Similar cycle-bottom readings appeared in February 2026 and again around June, creating a structure comparable to the June and November 2022 bottoming process.

• The February/June 2026 sequence has similarities to the two-stage bottom seen in 2022, which is one of the strongest arguments supporting the idea that the bottom may already be in.

• Bitcoin has also begun developing bullish divergence while bearish momentum appears to be weakening.

Why Another Low Is Still Expected

• Despite bullish signals, several important indicators have still not reached their historical cycle-bottom levels.

• Cycle-bottom data appears to trigger more consistently than cycle-top data, even as Bitcoin increasingly creates multiple technical tops and bottoms within the same broader cycle.

• The previous cycle included multiple major top events in March 2024, December 2024, and July 2025, while previous bottoms also produced multiple technical bottom signals.

• February and June 2026 may therefore both qualify as cycle-bottom events without necessarily being the final price low.

• A final fall bottom would allow additional long-term metrics to reach their traditional cycle-bottom zones.

Potential Price Targets

• Magic Bands V2 remains well above its historical cycle-bottom band, although a complete decline toward roughly $29K is not considered the most likely scenario.

• The Golden Ratio Multiplier’s traditional Level 1 bottom is around $31K and declining, but revisiting Level 2 near $50K appears more realistic.

• The Cycle Bottom Moving Average Tracker contains important levels around $49K and $42K, while its most aggressive historical target is near $30K.

• With bearish momentum weakening and several indicators already reaching bottom territory, a more modest decline into the low-to-mid $40Ks is viewed as a reasonable possibility.

• It would be surprising if Bitcoin completed the bear market without reaching at least some of the remaining major cycle-bottom metrics.

Halving Cycles Theory

• The broader outlook continues to prioritize Bitcoin’s historical cycle timing over individual indicators.

• Halving Cycles Theory places the final cycle bottom between November and January, around the transition from the bear-market year into the accumulation year.

• Previous cycles have produced convincing early tops and bottoms, but the ultimate cycle high and low still occurred inside their expected cycle windows.

• Examples include June 2022 appearing like a bottom before November 2022 ultimately produced the lowest price, along with multiple apparent cycle tops before the final high.

• Even if the eventual bottom only slightly undercuts previous lows, historical cycle timing suggests another opportunity for lower prices may still appear.

Market Psychology

• The recent rally has quickly shifted sentiment toward the belief that the bull market has returned.

• Traders and analysts who previously expected additional lows are increasingly highlighting evidence that the cycle bottom has already occurred.

• Fear of missing a major reversal is becoming an important part of the current market psychology.

• This strong confidence in a renewed bull market may itself fit the type of sentiment expected before a final bear-market phase.

What Would Change the Outlook

• There remains a real possibility that Bitcoin’s historical cycle structure has changed and that the bottom has already occurred.

• If the traditional November–January bottom window fails, it would raise major questions about how Bitcoin’s cycle should be interpreted going forward.

• That could require changes to Halving Cycles Theory or potentially suggest that Bitcoin’s traditional cycle structure is weakening.

• For now, however, there is not enough evidence to conclude that such a structural change has happened.

• Bitcoin has not yet broken the major swing high around $83K, meaning the broader price structure has not officially changed.

Current Position

• The primary expectation remains that the bear market continues and eventually produces another opportunity to buy at lower prices.

• The low-to-mid $40Ks remain a more realistic target than assuming an extreme decline toward $30K.

• At the same time, the strength of the recent rally, bullish divergence, and existing cycle-bottom signals make expecting significantly lower prices increasingly risky.

• Until the cycle is definitively proven wrong, the strategy remains to trust the historical cycle structure while remaining open to the possibility that Bitcoin is evolving.

Well, we’re certainly not at 64k anymore, are we?

Bitcoin has made a huge push to the upside to 80k, which has almost everyone completely abandoning any scenario that isn’t bullish.

“So CryptoCon, how after metrics reaching cycle bottom levels, bullish divergence being created, a low that looks just like November 2022, and a very bullish move could you possibly think the bear market wasn’t over?”

That’s exactly what we’ll be talking about!

We’ll also be covering the progress on my stock portfolio and my thoughts on gold.

Enjoy!

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Volatility is squeezing to a minimum, as made clear by Bitcoin’s price stuck at 64k yet again.

While some crypto influencers confidently call for a cycle bottom here, I maintain my position that the bear market is not over yet.

In this video, we’ll talk about our cycle position and check in on cycle bottom data. There are mixed opinions on data too, as some has bottomed out.

It’s tough for people to know what to think, but I’ll break it down!

Enjoy!

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I’m back this week with another quick update with Bitcoin at yet again, almost exactly 64k.

Despite Bitcoin’s price action, this past week was quite eventful for me as I announced my buys into stocks, something we’ll talk about more in this update.

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I am preparing to buy my own set of stocks.

Although I’ve said recently that the current stock market prices aren’t interesting to me yet, I have changed my mind with recent price action.

I have not bought yet, but I will be placing my orders soon after the release of this update. I will announce the exact timing in Urgent Alerts in the private Telegram Group. You can request access to this group as a premium subscriber by sending your Telegram ID number and the email you subscribe with to my DMs on X.

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I’m back in August for another quick update as Bitcoin hovers around 64k for going on its third month.

What was a slow grind up is now a slow grind down. There are no predominant patterns in the short term that I can find, and what we see is plain and boring price stagnation.

There’s nothing convincing on RSI either, like major bullish or b…

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Ah… another week around 64k. This time, we’re on our way down.

As price stagnates, confidence has built from much of crypto X that the bottom is in.

And, if you don’t agree with that, it seems your only other choice is to expect a cycle bottom in October at 50k.

In this video, we’ll talk about the Halving Cycle Theory’s cycle bottom date range of November 2026 - January 2027 and how that works with price and against the most popular predictions.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin is bouncing back toward the top of its July range, but the bigger question remains: is this the cycle bottom, or is Bitcoin still one major move away?

In this video, I break down current market psychology, the limits of contrarian thinking, Bitcoin’s likely bottom window, key price targets, liquidity conditions, and the indicators that still suggest more downside may be ahead.

Enjoy!

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I’m back with another quick update as Bitcoin drops again from its brief move to 64k to now 62k. I’m feeling a bit under the weather this week, so that makes it the perfect time for this shorter write-up.

At 64k, RSI bearish divergence was starting to build on shorter time frames like the 4hr and hidden bearish divergence on the daily:

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Bitcoin is bouncing, and confidence is rising again. Bearish momentum is slowing, but that does not mean the bear market is over.

In this video, we’ll go over what building bullish divergences across metrics mean for price, and where I think Bitcoin is most likely to bottom out using price levels and data positioning.

Enjoy!

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