The weekly Supertrend has flipped bullish, and it’s certainly not the only reason to believe the bull market is back. Even some of my own reliable metrics are saying the bottom is already in.

But I’m still trusting the cycle!

In this video, I’ll explain why I’m looking for a later low despite all of the bullish evidence. We’ll look at the resistance that’s still in place, the bottom data that hasn’t finished, and what short-term liquidity and Global M2 may be telling us.

Enjoy!

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It’s certainly not a popular opinion to suggest the bear market isn’t over at this point, especially after Bitcoin sits at 80k, but I am staying in that camp.

This is despite every possible reason to be bullish, like cycle bottom data completion, bullish divergences, a move similar to November 2022, bull market thresholds being crossed, and a powerful move out of the lows.

In this video, we’ll look at where Bitcoin is running into resistance and areas the bear market still needs “improvement” in.

Enjoy!

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It’s been a while since our last Friday Video Update, but I thought it’d be a good time to share my thoughts as Bitcoin blasts past 80k, which has everyone setting their sights on a new bull market.

But not fuddy duddy CryptoCon… he’s still stuck on that cycle stuff!

Ok, you got me. Despite the bullish price action, I am continuing to bet with the cycle, and in this video I’ll be sharing my thoughts on how the bear market could still play out.

Enjoy!

Summary (AI-Generated)

Bear Market Range Breakout

• Bitcoin spent roughly 72 days moving sideways around the $64K area before finally breaking upward with a major increase in volatility.

• The two previous bear-market ranges lasted approximately 68 days each, making the timing of a volatility expansion unsurprising.

• What was more surprising was the strength of the breakout, including three large bullish candles, significant volume, and a major wave of short liquidations.

• The move resembles bullish price action seen during the previous bull market, making the current situation increasingly difficult to dismiss as simply bearish.

Evidence Supporting a Cycle Bottom

• Several Bitcoin indicators have already reached traditional cycle-bottom territory.

• Similar cycle-bottom readings appeared in February 2026 and again around June, creating a structure comparable to the June and November 2022 bottoming process.

• The February/June 2026 sequence has similarities to the two-stage bottom seen in 2022, which is one of the strongest arguments supporting the idea that the bottom may already be in.

• Bitcoin has also begun developing bullish divergence while bearish momentum appears to be weakening.

Why Another Low Is Still Expected

• Despite bullish signals, several important indicators have still not reached their historical cycle-bottom levels.

• Cycle-bottom data appears to trigger more consistently than cycle-top data, even as Bitcoin increasingly creates multiple technical tops and bottoms within the same broader cycle.

• The previous cycle included multiple major top events in March 2024, December 2024, and July 2025, while previous bottoms also produced multiple technical bottom signals.

• February and June 2026 may therefore both qualify as cycle-bottom events without necessarily being the final price low.

• A final fall bottom would allow additional long-term metrics to reach their traditional cycle-bottom zones.

Potential Price Targets

• Magic Bands V2 remains well above its historical cycle-bottom band, although a complete decline toward roughly $29K is not considered the most likely scenario.

• The Golden Ratio Multiplier’s traditional Level 1 bottom is around $31K and declining, but revisiting Level 2 near $50K appears more realistic.

• The Cycle Bottom Moving Average Tracker contains important levels around $49K and $42K, while its most aggressive historical target is near $30K.

• With bearish momentum weakening and several indicators already reaching bottom territory, a more modest decline into the low-to-mid $40Ks is viewed as a reasonable possibility.

• It would be surprising if Bitcoin completed the bear market without reaching at least some of the remaining major cycle-bottom metrics.

Halving Cycles Theory

• The broader outlook continues to prioritize Bitcoin’s historical cycle timing over individual indicators.

• Halving Cycles Theory places the final cycle bottom between November and January, around the transition from the bear-market year into the accumulation year.

• Previous cycles have produced convincing early tops and bottoms, but the ultimate cycle high and low still occurred inside their expected cycle windows.

• Examples include June 2022 appearing like a bottom before November 2022 ultimately produced the lowest price, along with multiple apparent cycle tops before the final high.

• Even if the eventual bottom only slightly undercuts previous lows, historical cycle timing suggests another opportunity for lower prices may still appear.

Market Psychology

• The recent rally has quickly shifted sentiment toward the belief that the bull market has returned.

• Traders and analysts who previously expected additional lows are increasingly highlighting evidence that the cycle bottom has already occurred.

• Fear of missing a major reversal is becoming an important part of the current market psychology.

• This strong confidence in a renewed bull market may itself fit the type of sentiment expected before a final bear-market phase.

What Would Change the Outlook

• There remains a real possibility that Bitcoin’s historical cycle structure has changed and that the bottom has already occurred.

• If the traditional November–January bottom window fails, it would raise major questions about how Bitcoin’s cycle should be interpreted going forward.

• That could require changes to Halving Cycles Theory or potentially suggest that Bitcoin’s traditional cycle structure is weakening.

• For now, however, there is not enough evidence to conclude that such a structural change has happened.

• Bitcoin has not yet broken the major swing high around $83K, meaning the broader price structure has not officially changed.

Current Position

• The primary expectation remains that the bear market continues and eventually produces another opportunity to buy at lower prices.

• The low-to-mid $40Ks remain a more realistic target than assuming an extreme decline toward $30K.

• At the same time, the strength of the recent rally, bullish divergence, and existing cycle-bottom signals make expecting significantly lower prices increasingly risky.

• Until the cycle is definitively proven wrong, the strategy remains to trust the historical cycle structure while remaining open to the possibility that Bitcoin is evolving.

Well, we’re certainly not at 64k anymore, are we?

Bitcoin has made a huge push to the upside to 80k, which has almost everyone completely abandoning any scenario that isn’t bullish.

“So CryptoCon, how after metrics reaching cycle bottom levels, bullish divergence being created, a low that looks just like November 2022, and a very bullish move could you possibly think the bear market wasn’t over?”

That’s exactly what we’ll be talking about!

We’ll also be covering the progress on my stock portfolio and my thoughts on gold.

Enjoy!

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Volatility is squeezing to a minimum, as made clear by Bitcoin’s price stuck at 64k yet again.

While some crypto influencers confidently call for a cycle bottom here, I maintain my position that the bear market is not over yet.

In this video, we’ll talk about our cycle position and check in on cycle bottom data. There are mixed opinions on data too, as some has bottomed out.

It’s tough for people to know what to think, but I’ll break it down!

Enjoy!

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I’m back this week with another quick update with Bitcoin at yet again, almost exactly 64k.

Despite Bitcoin’s price action, this past week was quite eventful for me as I announced my buys into stocks, something we’ll talk about more in this update.

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I am preparing to buy my own set of stocks.

Although I’ve said recently that the current stock market prices aren’t interesting to me yet, I have changed my mind with recent price action.

I have not bought yet, but I will be placing my orders soon after the release of this update. I will announce the exact timing in Urgent Alerts in the private Telegram Group. You can request access to this group as a premium subscriber by sending your Telegram ID number and the email you subscribe with to my DMs on X.

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I’m back in August for another quick update as Bitcoin hovers around 64k for going on its third month.

What was a slow grind up is now a slow grind down. There are no predominant patterns in the short term that I can find, and what we see is plain and boring price stagnation.

There’s nothing convincing on RSI either, like major bullish or b…

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Ah… another week around 64k. This time, we’re on our way down.

As price stagnates, confidence has built from much of crypto X that the bottom is in.

And, if you don’t agree with that, it seems your only other choice is to expect a cycle bottom in October at 50k.

In this video, we’ll talk about the Halving Cycle Theory’s cycle bottom date range of November 2026 - January 2027 and how that works with price and against the most popular predictions.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin is bouncing back toward the top of its July range, but the bigger question remains: is this the cycle bottom, or is Bitcoin still one major move away?

In this video, I break down current market psychology, the limits of contrarian thinking, Bitcoin’s likely bottom window, key price targets, liquidity conditions, and the indicators that still suggest more downside may be ahead.

Enjoy!

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I’m back with another quick update as Bitcoin drops again from its brief move to 64k to now 62k. I’m feeling a bit under the weather this week, so that makes it the perfect time for this shorter write-up.

At 64k, RSI bearish divergence was starting to build on shorter time frames like the 4hr and hidden bearish divergence on the daily:

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Bitcoin is bouncing, and confidence is rising again. Bearish momentum is slowing, but that does not mean the bear market is over.

In this video, we’ll go over what building bullish divergences across metrics mean for price, and where I think Bitcoin is most likely to bottom out using price levels and data positioning.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin is still hovering around $60k and I’m continuing to expect lower prices before this cycle bottom is confirmed.

In this video, I’ll go through why some indicators are already flashing bottom signals while others aren’t, why I’m still waiting to buy into stocks, and where I’m watching for the real low… most likely the low 40k’s later this year.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin is still about the same prices as last week, but to keep you in the loop I wanted to shoot out another quick update.

One of the biggest pieces of news was the massive drop for STRC to 82.57, which is a perpetual preferred stock by Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy.

It’s supposed to trade as close to a value of 100 as possible, whic…

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Bitcoin is showing a short-term bear flag while sentiment has flipped extremely bullish, with a lot of people now calling the cycle bottom.

In this video, I break down why the weekly RSI bullish divergence isn’t as convincing as it looks on the surface, why most other timeframes and metrics still aren’t confirming a bottom, and why I’m sticking with a cycle-first approach that points to more downside ahead.

I also touch on gold’s long-term cycle, what M2 is doing, and why I’m comfortable staying patient until we actually reach the real bottom window.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin hit a new low of $59,000 this week as the bear market continues. In this update, we’ll break down the latest weekly price action, the ongoing struggle around the previous cycle’s $60K–$70K zone and the 200-week SMA, and why more downside is still likely.

I’ll share my cycle bottom/top approach, now giving cycle timing equal weight with indicators for better accuracy. We’ll also talk about M2 money supply projections, bear market comparisons, support levels from volume profile, Bear Bands, Magic Bands, and more.

We’ll also go over updates on long-term cycle bottom data after the move to 59k. Despite some bounces and early bullish signals, the overall picture and cycle positioning still point to more pain ahead, with the November 2026 – January 2027 timeframe remaining key.

Enjoy!

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Bitcoin just dropped back to $71K and is retesting the bottom of the bear flag after falling over $10,000 from the highs.

In this week’s update, I break down the current technical picture, the psychological shift I’m seeing after Michael Saylor’s sale, and why last cycle’s altcoin flop raises concerns that Bitcoin could face similar challenges.

We’ll cover psychology, future cycle performance potential, prices for the cycle bottom, and cycle bottom data.

Enjoy!

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As Bitcoin stalls around 77k, I'm sharing a shorter written update instead of a full video to keep you in the loop without overdoing it.

Markets overall have bounced from their temporary lows, a point where many people turned very bearish.

This doesn’t change my outlook for price, psychology will eb and flow.

The bear flag is still active an…

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Bitcoin is holding around $76,700 inside the bear flag as Global M2 peaks and starts to roll over. We’ll discuss why this setup still favors further downside and what the current structure is telling us.

We’ll cover key resistance, RSI divergences, logarithmic MVRV, and long-term holder behavior, plus my thoughts on where the stock market stands. A quick look at where we are in the cycle and what I’m watching next.

Enjoy!

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Global M2 is once again sending a clear signal. With a local high expected around May 23rd and a potential low forming by late June, the coming weeks could mark an important turning point for Bitcoin and risk assets.

In this video, we’ll look at the 10-week lead time of global money supply, the shifting psychology behind the current rebound, why the Halving Cycle remains intact, and what the parabolic move in semiconductors really means for the broader market.

Enjoy!

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