Hello Everyone!
It’s been a while since our last Friday Video Update, but I thought it’d be a good time to share my thoughts as Bitcoin blasts past 80k, which has everyone setting their sights on a new bull market.
But not fuddy duddy CryptoCon… he’s still stuck on that cycle stuff!
Ok, you got me. Despite the bullish price action, I am continuing to bet with the cycle, and in this video I’ll be sharing my thoughts on how the bear market could still play out.
Enjoy!
Summary (AI-Generated)
Bear Market Range Breakout
Bitcoin spent roughly 72 days moving sideways around the $64K area before finally breaking upward with a major increase in volatility.
The two previous bear-market ranges lasted approximately 68 days each, making the timing of a volatility expansion unsurprising.
What was more surprising was the strength of the breakout, including three large bullish candles, significant volume, and a major wave of short liquidations.
The move resembles bullish price action seen during the previous bull market, making the current situation increasingly difficult to dismiss as simply bearish.
Evidence Supporting a Cycle Bottom
Several Bitcoin indicators have already reached traditional cycle-bottom territory.
Similar cycle-bottom readings appeared in February 2026 and again around June, creating a structure comparable to the June and November 2022 bottoming process.
The February/June 2026 sequence has similarities to the two-stage bottom seen in 2022, which is one of the strongest arguments supporting the idea that the bottom may already be in.
Bitcoin has also begun developing bullish divergence while bearish momentum appears to be weakening.
Why Another Low Is Still Expected
Despite bullish signals, several important indicators have still not reached their historical cycle-bottom levels.
Cycle-bottom data appears to trigger more consistently than cycle-top data, even as Bitcoin increasingly creates multiple technical tops and bottoms within the same broader cycle.
The previous cycle included multiple major top events in March 2024, December 2024, and July 2025, while previous bottoms also produced multiple technical bottom signals.
February and June 2026 may therefore both qualify as cycle-bottom events without necessarily being the final price low.
A final fall bottom would allow additional long-term metrics to reach their traditional cycle-bottom zones.
Potential Price Targets
Magic Bands V2 remains well above its historical cycle-bottom band, although a complete decline toward roughly $29K is not considered the most likely scenario.
The Golden Ratio Multiplier’s traditional Level 1 bottom is around $31K and declining, but revisiting Level 2 near $50K appears more realistic.
The Cycle Bottom Moving Average Tracker contains important levels around $49K and $42K, while its most aggressive historical target is near $30K.
With bearish momentum weakening and several indicators already reaching bottom territory, a more modest decline into the low-to-mid $40Ks is viewed as a reasonable possibility.
It would be surprising if Bitcoin completed the bear market without reaching at least some of the remaining major cycle-bottom metrics.
Halving Cycles Theory
The broader outlook continues to prioritize Bitcoin’s historical cycle timing over individual indicators.
Halving Cycles Theory places the final cycle bottom between November and January, around the transition from the bear-market year into the accumulation year.
Previous cycles have produced convincing early tops and bottoms, but the ultimate cycle high and low still occurred inside their expected cycle windows.
Examples include June 2022 appearing like a bottom before November 2022 ultimately produced the lowest price, along with multiple apparent cycle tops before the final high.
Even if the eventual bottom only slightly undercuts previous lows, historical cycle timing suggests another opportunity for lower prices may still appear.
Market Psychology
The recent rally has quickly shifted sentiment toward the belief that the bull market has returned.
Traders and analysts who previously expected additional lows are increasingly highlighting evidence that the cycle bottom has already occurred.
Fear of missing a major reversal is becoming an important part of the current market psychology.
This strong confidence in a renewed bull market may itself fit the type of sentiment expected before a final bear-market phase.
What Would Change the Outlook
There remains a real possibility that Bitcoin’s historical cycle structure has changed and that the bottom has already occurred.
If the traditional November–January bottom window fails, it would raise major questions about how Bitcoin’s cycle should be interpreted going forward.
That could require changes to Halving Cycles Theory or potentially suggest that Bitcoin’s traditional cycle structure is weakening.
For now, however, there is not enough evidence to conclude that such a structural change has happened.
Bitcoin has not yet broken the major swing high around $83K, meaning the broader price structure has not officially changed.
Current Position
The primary expectation remains that the bear market continues and eventually produces another opportunity to buy at lower prices.
The low-to-mid $40Ks remain a more realistic target than assuming an extreme decline toward $30K.
At the same time, the strength of the recent rally, bullish divergence, and existing cycle-bottom signals make expecting significantly lower prices increasingly risky.
Until the cycle is definitively proven wrong, the strategy remains to trust the historical cycle structure while remaining open to the possibility that Bitcoin is evolving.
